People vote with their feet, as numerous studies about migration among the states have shown. But they don’t only do this by crossing state lines.
The IRS publishes data every year about migration not only from state to state, but from county to county. The nonpartisan Tax Foundation analyzed the most recent data, which cover people who filed taxes in one jurisdiction in 2021 and another in 2022. What it found about Georgia’s counties is illuminating.
For starters, we see that Georgia’s net gain of more than 24,000 tax filers was spread out. Of our 159 counties, 120 had a net gain of tax filers. The data also show that 119 counties had a net gain of total adjusted gross income (AGI) reported by these filers, totaling more than $700 million statewide.
But those are figures for all types of movers: those going in or out of Georgia from other states, and those moving from county to county within Georgia. We have known for decades that more people move into Georgia than out of it.
What about the people who move from one Georgia county to another?
The biggest takeaway is that Georgians are moving away from the state’s most populous counties. The largest county to have a net gain of tax filers who moved within Georgia was Cherokee, the seventh most populous.
Of the dozen counties with at least 200,000 residents, only four – Cherokee, Forsyth, Henry and Hall – attracted more residents from other Georgia counties than they lost. Only Cherokee, Forsyth and Hall had a net gain of total AGI; Henry gained tax filers but lost total AGI because there was a sizable difference between those leaving for other in-state counties (about $57,000) and those moving in (about $45,000).
The nearer to Atlanta, the sharper the trend. The state’s five largest counties are the core counties of metro Atlanta: Fulton, Gwinnett, Cobb, DeKalb and Clayton. Collectively, they lost a net $1.6 billion of AGI due to intrastate movers.
But those massive losses are also a function of those counties’ size. So, consider Athens-Clarke County. Clarke lost a net 526 tax filers and $28.8 million in total AGI. Meanwhile, three of the top seven counties for net AGI gain border Clarke: Jackson, Oconee and Barrow. Together, these three enjoyed net gains of 2,285 tax filers and about $326.5 million in total AGI.
Obviously, not all of those gains came from Clarke County. But the disparity between the urban county and its suburban neighbors is equally obvious.
That pattern holds up statewide. None of Georgia’s other major urban centers – Augusta, Columbus, Macon and Savannah – had a net gain of AGI among intrastate movers. Only Savannah had a net gain when we include people moving in from out of state.
In fact, the largest city to be located in a county with a net gain of AGI from in-state movers was Warner Robins, which with more than 84,000 people ranks 10th in the state. Next was Gainesville, ranked 20th with more than 47,000.
Whatever you might call these places, they aren’t really “urban.”
What does all this mean? After all, it’s not as if Warner Robins’ population is going to overtake Macon’s anytime soon, much less Atlanta’s.
Still, 2021 and 2022 followed the COVID-19 pandemic. Many of us know Georgians who moved to less-populated parts of the state as remote work became more commonplace and workers were less tethered to their offices. These data indicate this trend was more than anecdotal.
Given the long cityward shift of Georgia’s population, one might wonder if this kind of movement will, if not halt or reverse that shift, at least mitigate the effects for more exurban and rural areas. What they lack in city attractions, they may offset in a lower cost of living and slower pace of life.
It bears watching.